MODEL VERDICT
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $33.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $34.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $35.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $35.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $34.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $29.21 | -13.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $11.59 | -65.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $11.38 | -66.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $25.01 | -25.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $15.57 | -53.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $35.39 | +4.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $53.16 | +57.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $28.31 | -16.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $20.50 | -39.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $11.33 | -66.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $24.42 | -27.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.76 | +92.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 63× | 69× | 75× (Current) | 81× | 87× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $34 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (35%) | $38 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $53 |
| Base Case (53.2%) | $43 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
| Bull Case (72%) | $49 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $67 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 371.90 | 70.81 | 30.21 | 1243.00 | 517.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 121.89 | 40.12 | 26.08 | 381.22 | 173.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 155.67 | 45.13 | 33.03 | 388.86 | 202.04 |
| P/FCF | 372.23 | 104.37 | 26.11 | 1327.64 | 546.07 |
| P/FFO | 321.87 | 56.16 | 28.53 | 1114.05 | 465.12 |
| P/TBV | 18.56 | 12.16 | 5.48 | 48.44 | 15.61 |
| P/AFFO | 670.94 | 60.77 | 28.74 | 2825.00 | 1213.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.47 | 11.87 | 4.89 | 35.90 | 11.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.57 | 9.80 | 3.31 | 28.65 | 9.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CELH's fair value at $64.76 vs the current price of $33.73, implying +92.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.98 (P10) to $124.94 (P90), with a median of $71.87.
CELH's current P/E of 75.0x compares to the industry median of 25.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +196.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 371.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
22 analysts cover CELH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $59.00 (range: $41.00 — $70.00), implying +74.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CELH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.