MODEL VERDICT
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $53.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $48.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $46.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $52.90 | Below threshold | -9.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $30.50 | -43.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $10.97 | -79.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $11.08 | -79.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $24.97 | -53.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $15.19 | -71.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $32.58 | -39.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 11 industry peers | $53.77 | +0.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $24.84 | -53.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $16.89 | -68.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $11.03 | -79.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $24.52 | -54.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.28 | +27.4% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 99× | 109× | 119× (Current) | 129× | 139× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $54 | $59 | $65 | $70 | $76 |
| Conservative (35%) | $60 | $66 | $72 | $78 | $84 |
| Base Case (53.2%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Bull Case (72%) | $77 | $84 | $92 | $100 | $107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 371.90 | 70.81 | 30.21 | 1243.00 | 517.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 121.89 | 40.12 | 26.08 | 381.22 | 173.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 155.67 | 45.13 | 33.03 | 388.86 | 202.04 |
| P/FCF | 372.23 | 104.37 | 26.11 | 1327.64 | 546.07 |
| P/FFO | 321.87 | 56.16 | 28.53 | 1114.05 | 465.12 |
| P/TBV | 18.56 | 12.16 | 5.48 | 48.44 | 15.61 |
| P/AFFO | 670.94 | 60.77 | 28.74 | 2825.00 | 1213.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 15.47 | 11.87 | 4.89 | 35.90 | 11.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.57 | 9.80 | 3.31 | 28.65 | 9.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CELH's fair value at $68.28 vs the current price of $53.61, implying +27.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.52 (P10) to $125.12 (P90), with a median of $71.53.
CELH's current P/E of 119.1x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +383.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 371.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
21 analysts cover CELH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.00 (range: $61.00 — $74.00), implying +30.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CELH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.