MODEL VERDICT
Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $36.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $38.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $37.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $37.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $69.42 | +89.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $44.25 | +20.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $61.51 | +67.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $49.61 | +35.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $70.48 | +91.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $79.13 | +115.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $17.23 | -53.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $46.32 | +26.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $47.17 | +28.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $61.41 | +67.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $46.66 | +27.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $49.78 | +35.5% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $31 | $36 | $42 | $47 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $32 | $37 | $43 | $48 |
| Base Case (3.0%) | $26 | $32 | $37 | $42 | $47 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.70 | 15.11 | 12.61 | 26.65 | 5.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.11 | 10.89 | 9.18 | 16.31 | 3.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.74 | 7.90 | 6.30 | 11.94 | 2.25 |
| P/FCF | 8.59 | 7.78 | 7.05 | 13.35 | 2.37 |
| P/FFO | 9.38 | 8.51 | 5.67 | 13.05 | 2.64 |
| P/TBV | 4.23 | 3.52 | 2.49 | 6.54 | 1.76 |
| P/AFFO | 12.50 | 12.16 | 9.58 | 16.80 | 3.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.54 | 1.54 | 1.20 | 1.86 | 0.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.48 | 0.81 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CENT's fair value at $49.78 vs the current price of $36.73, implying +35.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $49.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.81 (P10) to $66.07 (P90), with a median of $54.75.
CENT's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -40.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover CENT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.00 (range: $51.00 — $51.00), implying +38.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 5.0% is 1.1 percentage points above the 7-year average (3.9%), with a Z-score of +1.6σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$35. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CENT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 480.0% to approximately $35. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.