MODEL VERDICT
Cerus Corporation (CERS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $2.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $2.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $2.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $1.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $0.97 | -64.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $0.70 | -74.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $6.70 | +146.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $7.20 | +164.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $1.28 | -52.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.33 | -14.3% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 9.12 | 9.58 | 5.11 | 13.84 | 3.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.95 | 9.40 | 5.00 | 13.62 | 3.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.59 | 3.98 | 1.58 | 12.34 | 4.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates CERS's fair value at $2.33 vs the current price of $2.72, implying -14.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.39 (P10) to $3.21 (P90), with a median of $2.26.
CERS's current P/E of -33.2x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -216.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover CERS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $4.00 (range: $4.00 — $4.00), implying +47.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CERS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.