MODEL VERDICT
Central Securities Corp. (CET)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $53.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $52.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $53.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $52.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $95.61 | +78.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $60.57 | +13.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 4 bank peers | $63.99 | +19.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 81 industry peers | $49.89 | -6.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $86.14 | +61.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $65.63 | +22.7% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $41 | $41 | $52 | $72 | $93 |
| Conservative (5%) | $43 | $43 | $53 | $75 | $96 |
| Base Case (0.9%) | $41 | $41 | $51 | $72 | $92 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $41 | $41 | $51 | $72 | $92 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.55 | 4.51 | 3.41 | 11.62 | 3.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.62 | 4.80 | 3.44 | 11.61 | 4.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.55 | 4.50 | 3.42 | 11.61 | 3.44 |
| P/FCF | 28.17 | 26.19 | 21.16 | 38.09 | 6.31 |
| P/FFO | 5.55 | 4.50 | 3.41 | 11.62 | 3.45 |
| P/TBV | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.04 |
| P/AFFO | 4.25 | 4.50 | 3.43 | 4.82 | 0.72 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.10 | 4.38 | 3.33 | 18.69 | 6.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CET's fair value at $65.63 vs the current price of $53.48, implying +22.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $65.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.94 (P10) to $75.41 (P90), with a median of $65.42.
CET's current P/E of 5.3x compares to the industry median of 9.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -44.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.6x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CET.
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CET's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (96.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 430.0% to approximately $56. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.