MODEL VERDICT
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $49.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $48.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $52.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $52.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $47.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $88.88 | +79.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $40.02 | -19.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $45.90 | -7.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $78.54 | +58.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $90.20 | +82.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $69.14 | +39.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.87 | +15.0% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $40 | $45 | $51 | $57 | $62 |
| Conservative (5%) | $41 | $47 | $52 | $58 | $64 |
| Base Case (-0.4%) | $39 | $44 | $50 | $55 | $61 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $39 | $44 | $50 | $55 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.14 | 14.80 | 6.70 | 32.41 | 9.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.04 | 15.05 | 6.40 | 31.34 | 9.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.61 | 13.47 | 6.32 | 28.76 | 8.35 |
| P/FCF | 43.20 | 11.89 | 11.38 | 106.33 | 54.67 |
| P/FFO | 12.97 | 9.87 | 6.58 | 28.15 | 8.05 |
| P/TBV | 2.49 | 2.93 | 0.65 | 3.91 | 1.22 |
| P/AFFO | 15.77 | 14.41 | 6.67 | 33.23 | 9.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.34 | 2.54 | 0.63 | 3.85 | 1.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.76 | 3.42 | 0.87 | 7.88 | 2.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CG's fair value at $56.87 vs the current price of $49.44, implying +15.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.88 (P10) to $69.22 (P90), with a median of $59.00.
CG's current P/E of 17.8x compares to the industry median of 32.1x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -44.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover CG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.33 (range: $56.00 — $74.00), implying +36.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CG trades at the 6080th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (15.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4340.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.