MODEL VERDICT
Canopy Growth Corporation (CGC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $1.19 | CURRENT | +16.0% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $1.08 | Monitoring | -3.7% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $1.09 | Monitoring | +0.0% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $1.23 | Monitoring | -14.6% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $1.74 | Monitoring | -40.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $6.18 | +419.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $7.03 | +490.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $66.36 | +5476.1% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 18.24 | 2.28 | 0.83 | 65.00 | 24.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.92 | 1.41 | 0.60 | 25.56 | 10.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 110.17 | 7.18 | 1.10 | 400.67 | 152.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CGC's fair value at $66.36 vs the current price of $1.19, implying +5476.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $66.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.78 (P10) to $163.58 (P90), with a median of $61.04.
CGC's current P/E of -0.3x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -101.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover CGC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.47 (range: $8.00 — $27.85), implying +1116.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (10), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CGC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.