MODEL VERDICT
Cognyte Software Ltd. (CGNT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $6.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $7.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $9.57 | Below threshold | -21.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $3.78 | -46.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $4.65 | -34.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $6.86 | -3.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $8.62 | +21.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $18.16 | +156.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $15.19 | +114.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $7.28 | +2.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.56 | -7.5% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 33.57 | 25.05 | 5.55 | 70.10 | 33.11 |
| P/FCF | 21.23 | 20.09 | 19.83 | 23.78 | 2.21 |
| P/FFO | 160.67 | 32.41 | 28.07 | 421.54 | 225.93 |
| P/TBV | 6.44 | 7.62 | 1.50 | 9.64 | 3.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.50 | 2.82 | 0.69 | 3.81 | 1.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.92 | 0.44 | 2.32 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates CGNT's fair value at $6.56 vs the current price of $7.09, implying -7.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.76 (P10) to $8.87 (P90), with a median of $7.22.
CGNT's current P/E of -41.7x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -281.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover CGNT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $14.00 — $14.00), implying +97.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CGNT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.