MODEL VERDICT
NICE Ltd. (NICE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $112.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $100.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $105.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $102.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $97.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $223.12 | +97.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $429.76 | +280.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $393.81 | +248.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $211.50 | +87.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $760.76 | +573.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $230.63 | +104.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 33 industry peers | $400.00 | +254.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $176.12 | +56.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $162.82 | +44.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $484.98 | +329.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $177.91 | +57.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $375.12 | +232.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $86 | $108 | $130 | $151 | $173 |
| Conservative (17%) | $92 | $114 | $137 | $160 | $183 |
| Base Case (26.8%) | $99 | $124 | $148 | $173 | $198 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $106 | $133 | $159 | $186 | $212 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.53 | 48.08 | 11.59 | 101.88 | 33.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.11 | 37.33 | 10.52 | 81.35 | 26.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.79 | 25.23 | 8.07 | 46.56 | 14.35 |
| P/FCF | 30.52 | 32.13 | 10.18 | 51.47 | 14.75 |
| P/FFO | 30.19 | 27.93 | 8.76 | 52.98 | 16.03 |
| P/TBV | 15.15 | 10.77 | 7.31 | 26.00 | 7.62 |
| P/AFFO | 32.88 | 31.13 | 9.90 | 56.64 | 17.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.55 | 4.18 | 1.85 | 7.22 | 2.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.60 | 5.86 | 2.41 | 11.35 | 3.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NICE's fair value at $375.12 vs the current price of $112.90, implying +232.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $375.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $291.79 (P10) to $395.54 (P90), with a median of $341.95.
NICE's current P/E of 11.6x compares to the industry median of 40.4x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -71.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover NICE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $150.88 (range: $120.00 — $200.00), implying +33.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (14), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 20.8% is 6.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (13.9%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$350. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NICE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 21010.0% to approximately $350. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.