MODEL VERDICT
Spok Holdings, Inc. (SPOK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 25 analyst estimates | $14.68 | +10.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 17 industry peers | $18.64 | +39.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $24.92 | +86.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 21 industry peers | $25.12 | +88.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 15 industry peers | $24.98 | +87.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 21 industry peers | $24.86 | +86.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 33 industry peers | $16.68 | +24.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 33 industry peers | $13.82 | +3.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $27.73 | +107.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 21 industry peers | $25.12 | +88.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.03 | +80.0% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.53 | 20.10 | 7.51 | 21.99 | 7.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.57 | 15.43 | 13.17 | 144.11 | 74.95 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.53 | 14.50 | 11.18 | 88.73 | 30.29 |
| P/FCF | 33.26 | 26.27 | 12.84 | 61.09 | 22.20 |
| P/FFO | 16.85 | 16.44 | 6.44 | 28.07 | 8.87 |
| P/TBV | 3.09 | 2.33 | 1.90 | 5.94 | 1.62 |
| P/AFFO | 31.10 | 19.78 | 7.56 | 77.27 | 31.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 2.13 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 1.46 | 1.22 | 2.40 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPOK's fair value at $24.03 vs the current price of $13.35, implying +80.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.94 (P10) to $30.51 (P90), with a median of $24.29.
SPOK's current P/E of 18.3x compares to the industry median of 34.1x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -46.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover SPOK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +12.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SPOK trades at the 830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPOK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.