MODEL VERDICT
Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. (CHCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $23.03 | +100.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $9.51 | -17.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $53.14 | +362.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $38.17 | +232.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $19.50 | +69.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.07 | +48.5% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $7 | $10 | $13 | $17 | $20 |
| Conservative (29%) | $7 | $11 | $15 | $18 | $22 |
| Base Case (45.0%) | $8 | $12 | $16 | $20 | $25 |
| Bull Case (61%) | $9 | $14 | $18 | $23 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.86 | 5.74 | 3.23 | 13.21 | 3.65 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.61 | 6.75 | 3.61 | 66.92 | 22.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.79 | 6.26 | 3.53 | 12.15 | 3.07 |
| P/FCF | 4.86 | 5.45 | 0.40 | 8.23 | 2.96 |
| P/FFO | 7.37 | 5.61 | 3.22 | 12.41 | 3.85 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.21 | 2.86 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 8.12 | 5.83 | 3.26 | 14.76 | 4.70 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.56 | 1.59 | 0.97 | 2.41 | 0.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 1.04 | 0.11 | 1.63 | 0.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHCI's fair value at $17.07 vs the current price of $11.49, implying +48.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.35 (P10) to $18.16 (P90), with a median of $14.22.
CHCI's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 37.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -78.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.9x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CHCI.
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (15), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHCI trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CHCI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.