MODEL VERDICT
City Holding Company (CHCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $123.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $124.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $127.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $125.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $126.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $119.42 | -3.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $65.42 | -47.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $74.91 | -39.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $113.77 | -7.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $119.42 | -3.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $99.42 | -19.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.45 | -13.9% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $93 | $112 | $130 | $149 | $167 |
| Conservative (7%) | $95 | $114 | $133 | $152 | $171 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $98 | $118 | $138 | $157 | $177 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $101 | $122 | $142 | $162 | $183 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.09 | 14.45 | 12.53 | 15.12 | 0.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.48 | 12.46 | 7.90 | 13.78 | 2.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.58 | 11.86 | 7.21 | 12.63 | 2.35 |
| P/FCF | 12.92 | 13.20 | 12.18 | 13.48 | 0.55 |
| P/FFO | 12.57 | 12.31 | 11.09 | 14.08 | 1.02 |
| P/TBV | 2.64 | 2.63 | 1.91 | 3.19 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 12.98 | 12.68 | 11.74 | 14.82 | 1.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.11 | 2.11 | 1.59 | 2.42 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.91 | 4.91 | 4.36 | 5.51 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHCO's fair value at $106.45 vs the current price of $123.58, implying -13.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $101.13 (P10) to $112.03 (P90), with a median of $106.49.
CHCO's current P/E of 13.8x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +3.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
8 analysts cover CHCO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $130.00 (range: $130.00 — $130.00), implying +5.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 690.0% to approximately $132. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.