MODEL VERDICT
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (CHCT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 7 REIT peers | $28.88 | +64.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $51.19 | +190.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $37.04 | +110.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $27.40 | +55.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $1.94 | -89.0% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $12.39 | -29.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $22.49 | +27.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $30.36 | +72.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.12 | +76.7% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 192× | 210× | 228× (Current) | 246× | 264× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $21 |
| Base Case (-37.3%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (-50%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 103.10 | 87.36 | 44.20 | 212.14 | 64.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.09 | 41.85 | 25.04 | 52.00 | 8.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.08 | 17.77 | 8.44 | 23.98 | 5.34 |
| P/FCF | 18.72 | 16.95 | 7.81 | 28.61 | 6.96 |
| P/FFO | 17.13 | 15.32 | 9.07 | 25.73 | 6.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.85 | 1.99 | 1.08 | 2.38 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 25.77 | 25.34 | 18.87 | 32.09 | 4.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.03 | 2.38 | 0.61 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.77 | 8.66 | 3.63 | 13.43 | 4.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHCT's fair value at $31.12 vs the current price of $17.61, implying +76.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.37 (P10) to $38.28 (P90), with a median of $32.61.
CHCT's current P/E of 227.5x compares to the industry median of 25.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +807.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 103.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover CHCT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.50 (range: $17.00 — $20.00), implying +5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHCT trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (103.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHCT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1860.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.