MODEL VERDICT
Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (CHCT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $17.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.90 | Pending | +6.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $52.71 | +208.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $36.46 | +113.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $27.21 | +59.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $2.80 | -83.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $15.71 | -8.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $16.77 | -1.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $28.79 | +68.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.77 | +91.7% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 185× | 203× | 221× (Current) | 239× | 257× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (-37.3%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-50%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 103.10 | 87.36 | 44.20 | 212.14 | 64.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.09 | 41.85 | 25.04 | 52.00 | 8.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.08 | 17.77 | 8.44 | 23.98 | 5.34 |
| P/FCF | 18.72 | 16.95 | 7.81 | 28.61 | 6.96 |
| P/FFO | 17.13 | 15.32 | 9.07 | 25.73 | 6.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.85 | 1.99 | 1.08 | 2.38 | 0.57 |
| P/AFFO | 25.77 | 25.34 | 18.87 | 32.09 | 4.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.03 | 2.38 | 0.61 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.77 | 8.66 | 3.63 | 13.43 | 4.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHCT's fair value at $32.77 vs the current price of $17.09, implying +91.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.37 (P10) to $41.35 (P90), with a median of $33.38.
CHCT's current P/E of 220.8x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +510.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 103.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover CHCT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.50 (range: $17.00 — $20.00), implying +8.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHCT trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (103.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHCT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2220.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.