MODEL VERDICT
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $177.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $183.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $182.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $168.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $163.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $189.08 | +6.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $108.44 | -38.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $164.32 | -7.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $205.79 | +16.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $181.13 | +2.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $244.56 | +37.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $78.83 | -55.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $201.29 | +13.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $194.22 | +9.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $158.09 | -10.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $228.69 | +29.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $188.82 | +6.5% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $153 | $168 | $183 | $197 | $212 |
| Conservative (5%) | $157 | $172 | $188 | $203 | $218 |
| Base Case (5.4%) | $158 | $173 | $188 | $204 | $219 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $161 | $176 | $192 | $207 | $223 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.59 | 25.23 | 12.37 | 33.28 | 7.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.02 | 20.74 | 10.88 | 26.73 | 5.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.71 | 18.02 | 10.14 | 23.39 | 4.49 |
| P/FCF | 101.89 | 21.83 | 7.65 | 599.37 | 219.48 |
| P/FFO | 19.78 | 21.02 | 11.27 | 28.31 | 5.89 |
| P/TBV | 57.47 | 58.31 | 38.16 | 75.34 | 15.73 |
| P/AFFO | 21.61 | 23.07 | 12.87 | 29.14 | 5.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.73 | 7.24 | 6.45 | 10.58 | 1.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 1.20 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHRW's fair value at $188.82 vs the current price of $177.30, implying +6.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $188.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $144.93 (P10) to $355.68 (P90), with a median of $204.99.
CHRW's current P/E of 36.7x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +7.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
46 analysts cover CHRW with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $187.38 (range: $90.00 — $230.00), implying +5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (23), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHRW trades at the 5830th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHRW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2390.0% to approximately $135. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.