MODEL VERDICT
Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. (CHT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $43.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $43.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $43.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $42.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $42.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $597.95 | +1285.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $661.23 | +1432.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $78.14 | +81.1% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $106.76 | +147.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $270.34 | +526.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $760.61 | +1662.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $597.88 | +1285.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $350.44 | +712.1% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $1171 | $1272 | $1374 | $1476 | $1578 |
| Conservative (5%) | $1205 | $1310 | $1415 | $1519 | $1624 |
| Base Case (3.0%) | $1182 | $1285 | $1388 | $1491 | $1593 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $1195 | $1299 | $1403 | $1506 | $1610 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.92 | 0.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 0.61 | 0.69 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 0.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.47 | 0.13 |
| P/FCF | 2.15 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 8.98 | 3.35 |
| P/FFO | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.03 |
| P/TBV | 0.48 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 2.82 | 1.03 |
| P/AFFO | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 1.15 | 0.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 2.16 | 0.79 |
| Div Yield | 1.17 | 1.21 | 1.02 | 1.26 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHT's fair value at $350.44 vs the current price of $43.15, implying +712.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $350.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $277.13 (P10) to $396.41 (P90), with a median of $333.28.
CHT's current P/E of 27.3x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +127.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover CHT with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHT trades at the 8480th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10.0% to approximately $43. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.