MODEL VERDICT
Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $171.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $180.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $236.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $220.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $218.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $428.33 | +149.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $545.44 | +217.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $367.44 | +114.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $320.50 | +86.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $675.57 | +293.4% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $380.83 | +121.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $315.67 | +83.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $412.23 | +140.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $605.04 | +252.3% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $156 | $156 | $195 | $272 | $350 |
| Conservative (12%) | $162 | $162 | $203 | $284 | $365 |
| Base Case (18.6%) | $172 | $172 | $215 | $301 | $387 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $181 | $181 | $227 | $317 | $408 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.90 | 12.96 | 5.76 | 65.11 | 21.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.83 | 13.00 | 10.03 | 29.76 | 8.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.72 | 7.38 | 5.69 | 12.13 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 15.33 | 15.76 | 6.51 | 23.56 | 6.04 |
| P/FFO | 6.18 | 4.46 | 2.10 | 10.71 | 3.40 |
| P/AFFO | 20.83 | 20.03 | 12.17 | 27.63 | 6.15 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.81 | 4.01 | 1.40 | 6.93 | 1.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.08 | 0.53 | 2.88 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHTR's fair value at $605.04 vs the current price of $171.74, implying +252.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $605.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $414.41 (P10) to $727.79 (P90), with a median of $563.31.
CHTR's current P/E of 4.7x compares to the industry median of 11.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -59.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
55 analysts cover CHTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $277.40 (range: $160.00 — $500.00), implying +61.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (25), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CHTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 34310.0% to approximately $761. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.