MODEL VERDICT
Grupo Cibest S.A. (CIB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $67.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $71.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $73.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $75.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $74.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $312402.31 | +465893.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $335665.95 | +500595.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $19381.58 | +28810.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $337647.11 | +503550.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $311542.71 | +464611.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $22979.61 | +34177.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $158885.53 | +236901.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $132937 | $186111 | $239286 | $292461 | $345635 |
| Conservative (5%) | $136846 | $191585 | $246324 | $301062 | $355801 |
| Base Case (-12.9%) | $113517 | $158924 | $204331 | $249738 | $295145 |
| Bull Case (-17%) | $107653 | $150714 | $193775 | $236836 | $279897 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.84 | 1.27 | 0.07 | 35.58 | 12.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.05 | 1.16 | 0.07 | 10.51 | 3.75 |
| P/FCF | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/FFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 393.71 | 336.70 | 246.03 | 644.13 | 132.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIB's fair value at $158885.53 vs the current price of $67.04, implying +236901.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $158885.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $123418.31 (P10) to $177243.07 (P90), with a median of $149015.55.
CIB's current P/E of 9.4x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -21.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
15 analysts cover CIB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $67.33 (range: $61.00 — $72.00), implying +0.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CIB trades at the 1010th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CIB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2860.0% to approximately $48. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.