MODEL VERDICT
Ciena Corporation (CIEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $535.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $520.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $507.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $475.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $496.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $231.51 | -56.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $102.34 | -80.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $49.63 | -90.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $110.97 | -79.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $160.44 | -70.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $109.92 | -79.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $158.76 | -70.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $156.65 | -70.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $59.54 | -88.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $110.89 | -79.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $140.73 | -73.7% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 530× | 580× | 630× (Current) | 680× | 730× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $460 | $503 | $546 | $590 | $633 |
| Conservative (5%) | $473 | $518 | $562 | $607 | $652 |
| Base Case (-18.2%) | $369 | $403 | $438 | $473 | $508 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $340 | $372 | $404 | $436 | $468 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 81.73 | 26.52 | 22.78 | 275.14 | 96.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.37 | 23.19 | 16.38 | 139.43 | 44.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.65 | 17.35 | 12.35 | 76.38 | 23.55 |
| P/FCF | 42.90 | 29.43 | 19.19 | 108.21 | 34.06 |
| P/FFO | 40.40 | 19.08 | 16.69 | 128.83 | 41.56 |
| P/TBV | 5.92 | 3.92 | 3.06 | 17.12 | 5.01 |
| P/AFFO | 79.21 | 23.12 | 20.05 | 276.45 | 99.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.63 | 3.28 | 2.36 | 12.45 | 3.51 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.06 | 2.33 | 1.53 | 7.12 | 1.90 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIEN's fair value at $140.73 vs the current price of $535.29, implying -73.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $140.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $131.63 (P10) to $215.07 (P90), with a median of $172.26.
CIEN's current P/E of 629.8x compares to the industry median of 58.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +978.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 81.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
41 analysts cover CIEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $334.17 (range: $190.00 — $416.00), implying -37.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CIEN trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (81.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CIEN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8100.0% to approximately $102. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.