MODEL VERDICT
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $3.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $34.25 | +947.4% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $32.46 | +892.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $5.05 | +54.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $9.35 | +185.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $85.55 | +2516.2% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $12.83 | +292.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $112.37 | +3336.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $32.87 | +905.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.57 | +681.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $10 | $13 | $18 | $24 | $29 |
| Conservative (8%) | $11 | $13 | $19 | $24 | $30 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $11 | $14 | $20 | $25 | $31 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $12 | $15 | $20 | $26 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.60 | 1.45 | 0.93 | 3.03 | 0.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.56 | 2.90 | 1.68 | 6.25 | 1.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.08 | 2.13 | 1.92 | 5.71 | 1.52 |
| P/FCF | 13.40 | 2.59 | 1.07 | 42.46 | 18.78 |
| P/FFO | 1.12 | 0.98 | 0.78 | 2.02 | 0.41 |
| P/TBV | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 1.03 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 2.01 | 2.20 | 1.01 | 3.09 | 0.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.65 | 0.21 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIG-C's fair value at $25.57 vs the current price of $3.27, implying +681.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.48 (P10) to $41.07 (P90), with a median of $28.47.
CIG-C's current P/E of 6.5x compares to the industry median of 13.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -52.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover CIG-C with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CIG-C trades at the 1540th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CIG-C's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5140.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.