MODEL VERDICT
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $2.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $50.97 | +1938.8% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $37.76 | +1410.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $53.10 | +2024.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $22.74 | +809.6% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $13.32 | +432.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $68.84 | +2653.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $73.81 | +2852.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $80.63 | +3125.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $50.97 | +1938.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.36 | +1314.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $11 | $11 | $13 | $19 | $24 |
| Conservative (11%) | $11 | $11 | $14 | $19 | $25 |
| Base Case (17.3%) | $12 | $12 | $15 | $20 | $26 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $12 | $12 | $15 | $22 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.36 | 1.10 | 0.71 | 2.62 | 0.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.97 | 2.76 | 1.53 | 5.44 | 1.30 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.93 | 2.03 | 1.79 | 4.91 | 1.43 |
| P/FCF | 12.35 | 1.62 | 0.81 | 45.67 | 19.05 |
| P/FFO | 1.01 | 0.86 | 0.60 | 1.73 | 0.38 |
| P/TBV | 0.71 | 0.63 | 0.48 | 1.11 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 1.78 | 1.91 | 0.83 | 2.62 | 0.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.11 | 0.85 | 0.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIG's fair value at $35.36 vs the current price of $2.50, implying +1314.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.08 (P10) to $39.14 (P90), with a median of $30.79.
CIG's current P/E of 5.0x compares to the industry median of 20.5x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -75.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover CIG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.10 (range: $2.10 — $2.10), implying -16.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CIG trades at the 770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CIG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8360.0% to approximately $5. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.