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Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$147.49
→
Intrinsic$110.80
-25%
$63.89$110.80$199.94
Market implies 15% growth for 5 years
CIGI trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $147, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (15%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $64 → Bull $200. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →6%8%10%12%
8%$139$155$172$190
10%$88$99$111$123
12%$60$68$77$86
14%$42$48$55$63

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($200) offers 36% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
  • Conservative 10% growth assumption is achievable based on track record

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($64) implies 57% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
  • Price reflects 15% growth expectations vs 10% historical — high bar to clear
  • Trading 25% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$420.22M
Year 2$460.66M
Year 3$504.99M
Year 4$553.59M
Year 5$606.87M
Terminal$8.93B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate9.6%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$383.33MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is CIGI stock undervalued or overvalued?
🔴 OVERVALUED

CIGI trades at $147.49 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $110.80, implying -25% downside. Using a 10.0% WACC and 9.6% FCF growth assumption, the current price requires growth rates above our estimates to be justified. Even our bull case ($168.35) suggests limited upside.

What is CIGI's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $383M, projected at 9.6% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.88B net debt and dividing by 0.05B shares: Bear $68.39 | Base $110.80 | Bull $168.35. Current price $147.49 implies -25% to base case.

How is CIGI's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 9.6% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($7.44B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 19.4x.