MODEL VERDICT
Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $103.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $108.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $116.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $113.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $111.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $131.48 | +26.9% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 4 REIT peers | $131.93 | +27.3% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $122.22 | +17.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $13.21 | -87.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $90.32 | -12.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $92.97 | -10.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $105.78 | +2.1% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $350.05 | +237.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $215.73 | +108.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $183.21 | +76.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $85 | $95 | $105 | $115 | $125 |
| Conservative (5%) | $88 | $98 | $108 | $118 | $128 |
| Base Case (-1.3%) | $83 | $92 | $102 | $111 | $121 |
| Bull Case (-2%) | $82 | $92 | $101 | $111 | $120 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.19 | 30.30 | 20.78 | 89.10 | 26.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.70 | 19.86 | 13.49 | 27.93 | 5.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 86.67 | 14.25 | 1.02 | 535.57 | 198.01 |
| P/FCF | 29.31 | 26.88 | 9.87 | 72.16 | 22.53 |
| P/FFO | 15.80 | 17.94 | 0.85 | 21.84 | 7.63 |
| P/AFFO | 21.14 | 23.57 | 0.87 | 31.90 | 10.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.44 | 3.05 | 2.57 | 5.69 | 1.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.28 | 0.78 | 1.56 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CIGI's fair value at $183.21 vs the current price of $103.63, implying +76.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $183.21 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $105.28 (P10) to $389.58 (P90), with a median of $178.76.
CIGI's current P/E of 32.2x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +11.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.2x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover CIGI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $182.00 (range: $173.00 — $200.00), implying +75.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CIGI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (2.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1970.0% to approximately $124. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.