MODEL VERDICT
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $162.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $164.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $166.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $163.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $161.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $167.49 | +3.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $197.91 | +22.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $99.48 | -38.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $181.91 | +12.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $167.49 | +3.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $224.38 | +38.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $120.35 | -25.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $210.38 | +29.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $164.57 | +1.6% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $113 | $145 | $177 | $209 | $241 |
| Conservative (10%) | $117 | $150 | $183 | $217 | $250 |
| Base Case (15.2%) | $122 | $157 | $192 | $227 | $262 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $128 | $165 | $201 | $238 | $274 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.36 | 9.38 | 6.29 | 11.66 | 1.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.33 | 7.38 | 4.88 | 9.14 | 1.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.15 | 7.21 | 4.79 | 8.82 | 1.37 |
| P/FCF | 9.53 | 8.63 | 7.98 | 14.66 | 2.35 |
| P/FFO | 8.82 | 8.88 | 6.01 | 10.71 | 1.66 |
| P/TBV | 1.62 | 1.70 | 1.32 | 1.79 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 8.90 | 8.97 | 6.04 | 10.87 | 1.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.32 | 1.76 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.63 | 2.48 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CINF's fair value at $164.57 vs the current price of $162.05, implying +1.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $164.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $145.45 (P10) to $170.07 (P90), with a median of $157.94.
CINF's current P/E of 10.7x compares to the industry median of 11.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -3.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
17 analysts cover CINF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $173.50 (range: $157.00 — $190.00), implying +7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CINF trades at the 4760th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CINF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (17.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2830.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.