MODEL VERDICT
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $10.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $9.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $9.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $9.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $9.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $13.78 | +31.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $22.04 | +109.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.66 | +96.6% | 100% | 55 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.18 | 7.24 | 4.07 | 26.18 | 10.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 57.90 | 10.03 | 4.32 | 253.23 | 109.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.98 | 8.22 | 3.64 | 68.65 | 30.87 |
| P/FCF | 6.04 | 5.84 | 5.70 | 6.58 | 0.47 |
| P/FFO | 12.20 | 6.96 | 3.12 | 29.67 | 11.25 |
| P/TBV | 2.72 | 1.94 | 1.14 | 6.71 | 1.99 |
| P/AFFO | 8.03 | 5.92 | 3.81 | 14.37 | 5.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 1.28 | 0.65 | 6.68 | 2.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 1.20 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLF's fair value at $20.66 vs the current price of $10.51, implying +96.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.24 (P10) to $23.78 (P90), with a median of $16.89.
CLF's current P/E of -3.5x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -112.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover CLF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $11.11 (range: $9.42 — $13.00), implying +5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (22), Sell (11), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.