MODEL VERDICT
Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $2.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $2.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $4.57 | +96.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $2.77 | +18.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.25 | +125.5% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 141.57 | 70.80 | 9.31 | 415.36 | 186.32 |
| P/FCF | 75.29 | 87.44 | 33.02 | 105.42 | 37.70 |
| P/TBV | 1.59 | 1.29 | 0.83 | 3.44 | 0.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.43 | 1.16 | 0.78 | 3.02 | 0.80 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.73 | 2.01 | 1.09 | 5.41 | 1.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLNE's fair value at $5.25 vs the current price of $2.33, implying +125.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.81 (P10) to $5.79 (P90), with a median of $4.28.
CLNE's current P/E of -2.3x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -111.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover CLNE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.50 (range: $2.00 — $5.00), implying +50.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLNE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.