MODEL VERDICT
Clover Health Investments, Corp. (CLOV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $1.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $1.55 | -42.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $0.99 | -63.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $3.27 | +20.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $3.26 | +20.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.84 | -32.0% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.95 | 3.27 | 1.31 | 4.56 | 1.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.91 | 3.25 | 1.24 | 4.52 | 1.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.30 | 0.88 | 0.36 | 10.08 | 3.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLOV's fair value at $1.84 vs the current price of $2.71, implying -32.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.31 (P10) to $2.71 (P90), with a median of $1.93.
CLOV's current P/E of -15.9x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -166.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
9 analysts cover CLOV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.33 (range: $1.80 — $6.00), implying +22.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLOV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.