MODEL VERDICT
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $100.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $99.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $95.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $98.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $90.75 | Below threshold | +8.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $122.70 | +21.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $108.76 | +7.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $109.35 | +8.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $147.96 | +46.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $122.40 | +21.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $106.14 | +5.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.01 | -0.9% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $109 | $128 | $146 | $164 | $182 |
| Conservative (10%) | $113 | $132 | $151 | $170 | $189 |
| Base Case (15.8%) | $119 | $139 | $159 | $179 | $198 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $125 | $146 | $166 | $187 | $208 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.69 | 8.69 | 6.06 | 10.57 | 1.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.37 | 35.15 | 26.35 | 37.79 | 4.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.99 | 29.80 | 23.48 | 32.35 | 3.39 |
| P/FCF | 2.85 | 2.02 | 0.64 | 5.96 | 2.11 |
| P/FFO | 7.01 | 7.18 | 5.04 | 8.87 | 1.17 |
| P/TBV | 1.17 | 1.17 | 0.86 | 1.52 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 8.10 | 8.27 | 5.95 | 10.03 | 1.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.73 | 1.32 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.30 | 0.79 | 2.26 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CM's fair value at $100.01 vs the current price of $100.96, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $93.33 (P10) to $107.71 (P90), with a median of $100.36.
CM's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +12.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
15 analysts cover CM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $106.62 (range: $70.00 — $127.32), implying +5.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CM trades at the 6190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1430.0% to approximately $87. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.