MODEL VERDICT
Commercial Metals Company (CMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $68.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $69.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $66.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $64.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $65.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $116.05 | +69.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $83.33 | +21.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $18.91 | -72.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $86.15 | +25.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $86.41 | +25.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $97.67 | +42.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $110.62 | +61.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $97.88 | +42.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $18.85 | -72.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $84.31 | +22.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.57 | +5.7% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 79× | 86× | 93× (Current) | 100× | 107× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $65 | $70 | $75 | $81 |
| Conservative (5%) | $61 | $67 | $72 | $78 | $83 |
| Base Case (-20.4%) | $47 | $51 | $55 | $59 | $63 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.47 | 10.74 | 4.85 | 93.54 | 31.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.13 | 8.53 | 4.30 | 53.63 | 17.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.37 | 6.31 | 4.53 | 10.19 | 1.99 |
| P/FCF | 28.51 | 16.86 | 4.09 | 99.91 | 36.02 |
| P/FFO | 8.47 | 7.44 | 4.25 | 21.31 | 5.81 |
| P/TBV | 1.81 | 1.72 | 1.36 | 2.20 | 0.30 |
| P/AFFO | 10.82 | 11.67 | 6.27 | 13.16 | 2.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.31 | 1.93 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.66 | 0.66 | 0.45 | 1.01 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMC's fair value at $72.57 vs the current price of $68.66, implying +5.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.98 (P10) to $89.43 (P90), with a median of $77.31.
CMC's current P/E of 92.8x compares to the industry median of 25.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +263.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover CMC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $82.75 (range: $77.00 — $85.00), implying +20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (12), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CMC trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CMC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6140.0% to approximately $26. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.