MODEL VERDICT
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $32.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $34.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $35.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $35.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $34.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $26.65 | -19.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $25.13 | -23.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $28.69 | -13.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $28.80 | -12.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $26.29 | -20.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $29.99 | -9.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $46.34 | +40.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $33.27 | +0.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $29.09 | -11.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $28.69 | -13.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $32.99 | +0.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $39.63 | +20.2% | 100% | 81 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $33 | $35 | $38 | $40 | $43 |
| Conservative (23%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $43 | $46 |
| Base Case (35.5%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 | $51 |
| Bull Case (48%) | $42 | $46 | $49 | $52 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.20 | 54.32 | 32.46 | 110.92 | 25.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.77 | 43.72 | 29.40 | 124.75 | 32.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.42 | 38.55 | 24.92 | 79.34 | 18.09 |
| P/FCF | 63.33 | 54.92 | 34.32 | 135.63 | 33.14 |
| P/FFO | 43.95 | 42.07 | 26.19 | 66.29 | 13.37 |
| P/TBV | 19.12 | 19.72 | 14.26 | 22.84 | 3.08 |
| P/AFFO | 87.66 | 65.08 | 40.36 | 178.32 | 46.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 18.95 | 19.50 | 14.07 | 22.71 | 3.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.69 | 6.42 | 4.17 | 7.34 | 1.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMG's fair value at $39.63 vs the current price of $32.98, implying +20.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $39.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.43 (P10) to $47.71 (P90), with a median of $39.98.
CMG's current P/E of 28.9x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +14.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 62.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
67 analysts cover CMG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $43.72 (range: $36.00 — $52.00), implying +32.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (46), Hold (21), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CMG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13210.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.