MODEL VERDICT
Compass Minerals International, Inc. (CMP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $26.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $25.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $25.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $24.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $24.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $11.42 | -56.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $13.69 | -47.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $58.56 | +123.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $5.26 | -80.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $49.47 | +88.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $32.69 | +24.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $51.99 | +98.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $58.29 | +122.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.35 | +34.6% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 45.99 | 35.07 | 34.48 | 68.43 | 19.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 59.50 | 34.52 | 31.60 | 112.39 | 45.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.68 | 12.37 | 9.14 | 58.39 | 19.10 |
| P/FCF | 28.07 | 22.00 | 6.42 | 58.78 | 19.77 |
| P/FFO | 16.66 | 10.59 | 9.05 | 35.11 | 10.91 |
| P/TBV | 8.70 | 4.93 | 2.04 | 28.10 | 8.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.73 | 3.82 | 1.47 | 5.94 | 1.63 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.21 | 1.12 | 0.42 | 2.08 | 0.62 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMP's fair value at $35.35 vs the current price of $26.26, implying +34.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.76 (P10) to $54.83 (P90), with a median of $39.98.
CMP's current P/E of -13.7x compares to the industry median of 23.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -158.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover CMP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $23.67 (range: $22.00 — $25.00), implying -9.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CMP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.