MODEL VERDICT
Construction Partners, Inc. (ROAD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $126.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $120.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $125.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $111.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $118.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $78.66 | -37.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $131.35 | +3.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $63.12 | -50.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $85.09 | -32.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $92.40 | -27.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $63.17 | -50.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 10 industry peers | $37.80 | -70.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $131.67 | +4.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $135.41 | +7.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $62.98 | -50.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $85.09 | -32.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $86.86 | -31.4% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 57× | 63× | 69× (Current) | 75× | 81× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $113 | $125 | $136 | $148 | $160 |
| Conservative (12%) | $118 | $130 | $142 | $155 | $167 |
| Base Case (18.7%) | $124 | $138 | $151 | $164 | $177 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $131 | $145 | $159 | $173 | $187 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.96 | 58.99 | 20.08 | 75.41 | 19.45 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.27 | 33.54 | 14.54 | 54.59 | 13.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.09 | 18.20 | 9.66 | 25.47 | 4.87 |
| P/FCF | 42.46 | 38.39 | 28.58 | 67.81 | 14.83 |
| P/FFO | 19.82 | 18.88 | 11.67 | 28.73 | 5.59 |
| P/TBV | 6.30 | 4.62 | 2.88 | 14.46 | 4.19 |
| P/AFFO | 65.99 | 62.91 | 27.22 | 111.54 | 25.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.61 | 3.90 | 2.53 | 8.11 | 2.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.07 | 2.55 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROAD's fair value at $86.86 vs the current price of $126.53, implying -31.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $86.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $84.47 (P10) to $107.51 (P90), with a median of $95.86.
ROAD's current P/E of 68.8x compares to the industry median of 34.3x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +100.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 53.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover ROAD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.33 (range: $130.00 — $142.00), implying +8.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.0% is 2.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.9%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$144. (2) Multiple compression: ROAD trades at the 7690th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (53.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ROAD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1360.0% to approximately $144. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.