MODEL VERDICT
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $76.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $77.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $77.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $79.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $77.27 | +1.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $60.66 | -20.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $75.52 | -0.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $75.03 | -1.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $57.71 | -24.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $77.93 | +2.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $63.12 | -17.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $77.27 | +1.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $70.76 | -6.9% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $65 | $72 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $67 | $74 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $67 | $75 | $82 | $90 | $97 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $69 | $76 | $84 | $92 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.67 | 20.02 | 13.96 | 26.29 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.97 | 22.72 | 19.31 | 25.34 | 2.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.69 | 13.66 | 13.14 | 14.74 | 0.52 |
| P/FFO | 9.13 | 9.36 | 7.63 | 10.70 | 1.01 |
| P/TBV | 2.57 | 2.42 | 2.08 | 3.53 | 0.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.57 | 2.42 | 2.08 | 3.53 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.50 | 2.57 | 2.14 | 2.72 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMS's fair value at $70.76 vs the current price of $76.03, implying -6.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $70.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.68 (P10) to $75.93 (P90), with a median of $71.30.
CMS's current P/E of 21.5x compares to the industry median of 21.9x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -1.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover CMS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $81.00 (range: $79.00 — $85.00), implying +6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CMS trades at the 6470th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CMS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 440.0% to approximately $73. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.