MODEL VERDICT
CMS Energy Corporation 5.875% J (CMSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $22.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $84.47 | +269.2% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $59.44 | +159.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $75.05 | +228.0% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $78.54 | +243.3% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $63.68 | +178.3% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $69.35 | +203.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $71.82 | +213.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $84.18 | +267.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.87 | +161.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $14 | $22 | $29 | $36 |
| Conservative (5%) | $15 | $15 | $22 | $30 | $37 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $15 | $15 | $22 | $30 | $37 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $15 | $15 | $23 | $31 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.15 | 7.81 | 5.73 | 11.20 | 2.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.83 | 15.08 | 12.74 | 17.22 | 1.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.44 | 9.30 | 8.55 | 10.60 | 0.68 |
| P/FFO | 3.80 | 3.51 | 3.05 | 4.99 | 0.81 |
| P/TBV | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.70 | 1.51 | 0.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 0.89 | 0.70 | 1.51 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 1.27 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CMSC's fair value at $59.87 vs the current price of $22.88, implying +161.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.86 (P10) to $62.41 (P90), with a median of $58.59.
CMSC's current P/E of 6.5x compares to the industry median of 23.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -72.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CMSC.
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CMSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2520.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.