MODEL VERDICT
CNA Financial Corporation (CNA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $47.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $48.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $48.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $47.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $47.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $64.39 | +34.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $68.88 | +43.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $51.14 | +6.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $252.71 | +426.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $64.37 | +34.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $86.64 | +80.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $64.98 | +35.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $31.16 | -35.1% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $75.17 | +56.6% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $25 | $38 | $51 | $63 | $76 |
| Conservative (12%) | $26 | $40 | $53 | $66 | $79 |
| Base Case (18.5%) | $28 | $42 | $56 | $70 | $84 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $30 | $44 | $59 | $74 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.06 | 13.74 | 8.08 | 17.71 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.79 | 11.68 | 8.63 | 14.93 | 2.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.33 | 12.28 | 8.93 | 15.99 | 2.63 |
| P/FCF | 5.69 | 5.41 | 4.70 | 6.97 | 0.74 |
| P/FFO | 11.74 | 11.43 | 9.01 | 15.72 | 2.60 |
| P/TBV | 1.11 | 1.13 | 0.85 | 1.34 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 12.41 | 11.68 | 9.69 | 16.92 | 2.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 1.12 | 0.84 | 1.31 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.03 | 0.99 | 0.88 | 8.22 | 2.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNA's fair value at $75.17 vs the current price of $47.99, implying +56.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $75.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.18 (P10) to $80.68 (P90), with a median of $73.26.
CNA's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 10.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -25.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover CNA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $45.00 (range: $45.00 — $45.00), implying -6.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 9.9% is 2.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (7.5%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$58. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CNA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2160.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.