MODEL VERDICT
Centene Corporation (CNC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $44.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $43.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $40.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $39.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $46.61 | Pending | -18.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $105.40 | +134.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $49.28 | +9.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $43.77 | -2.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $706.00 | +1473.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.09 | +109.7% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.27 | 19.63 | 9.60 | 39.62 | 11.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.61 | 12.61 | 7.48 | 23.49 | 6.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.23 | 10.94 | 8.40 | 20.73 | 5.17 |
| P/FCF | 12.79 | 8.29 | 4.68 | 35.10 | 11.50 |
| P/FFO | 13.03 | 12.40 | 6.98 | 18.14 | 4.48 |
| P/TBV | 9.48 | 7.99 | 4.31 | 17.63 | 5.76 |
| P/AFFO | 19.13 | 18.62 | 8.13 | 29.30 | 8.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.57 | 1.56 | 1.01 | 2.08 | 0.41 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNC's fair value at $94.09 vs the current price of $44.88, implying +109.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.90 (P10) to $134.44 (P90), with a median of $101.28.
CNC's current P/E of -3.3x compares to the industry median of 22.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -114.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover CNC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $45.50 (range: $38.00 — $59.00), implying +1.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CNC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.