MODEL VERDICT
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $29.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $28.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $28.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $28.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $28.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $21.08 | -28.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $36.22 | +23.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $37.18 | +26.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $21.16 | -28.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $21.08 | -28.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $33.93 | +15.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.83 | -8.6% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 | $37 |
| Base Case (-3.7%) | $23 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Bull Case (-5%) | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.93 | 11.07 | 8.04 | 17.72 | 3.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.63 | 13.30 | 9.67 | 21.28 | 3.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.12 | 12.58 | 9.36 | 21.28 | 4.00 |
| P/FCF | 10.92 | 10.45 | 5.51 | 15.51 | 3.96 |
| P/FFO | 10.49 | 10.05 | 7.31 | 13.99 | 2.07 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.02 | 0.86 | 1.61 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 10.94 | 10.44 | 7.50 | 14.84 | 2.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.71 | 1.24 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.56 | 2.43 | 1.65 | 4.18 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNOB's fair value at $26.83 vs the current price of $29.37, implying -8.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.44 (P10) to $29.49 (P90), with a median of $27.42.
CNOB's current P/E of 19.8x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +39.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover CNOB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.00 (range: $34.00 — $34.00), implying +15.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CNOB trades at the 9080th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CNOB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 420.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.