MODEL VERDICT
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $43.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $42.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $43.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $42.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $43.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $36.11 | -16.7% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $34.50 | -20.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $29.36 | -32.3% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $37.86 | -12.7% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $30.43 | -29.8% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $32.83 | -24.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $36.11 | -16.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.23 | -25.6% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $42 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $51 | $55 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $42 | $45 | $49 | $53 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.42 | 20.29 | 12.24 | 23.96 | 3.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.20 | 22.68 | 18.42 | 25.76 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.21 | 12.28 | 11.12 | 13.40 | 0.73 |
| P/FFO | 10.64 | 8.09 | 6.08 | 27.62 | 7.58 |
| P/TBV | 3.36 | 3.31 | 3.04 | 4.03 | 0.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.87 | 1.38 | 2.26 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.08 | 2.04 | 1.55 | 2.69 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNP's fair value at $32.23 vs the current price of $43.35, implying -25.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.20 (P10) to $36.50 (P90), with a median of $33.81.
CNP's current P/E of 27.1x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (13 peers in the group). This represents a +20.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.4x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
30 analysts cover CNP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $43.50 (range: $37.00 — $49.00), implying +0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (17), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CNP trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CNP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (8.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4920.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.