Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)
Valuation Overview•Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 39/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
CNR struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($78M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (22.2% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-3.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | +93.8% | +22.2% | +36.5% | +12.0% | |
| EBITDA | $169.0M | — | -26.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $21.0M | -153.5% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.41 | -130.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $46.3M | -92.9% | -64.7% | -13.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 0.8% | 51.8% | 62.3% | 71.2% |
| Operating Margin | -3.3% | 12.3% | 16.0% | 9.9% |
| Net Margin | -1.5% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| FCF Margin | 5.7% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 14.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.01 | $0.41 | +4200.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.35 | $-1.54 | -338.4% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-1.40 | $0.61 | +143.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.31 | $-0.70 | -153.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.74 | $-1.38 | -179.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $2.27 | $3.07 | +35.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $3.17 | $3.22 | +1.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.94 | $1.96 | +108.5% |
Total return is +12.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -12.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -6.8% | -16.1% | — |
| 1Y | +12.2% | -12.8% | +0.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +7.8% | -10.5% | +1.6% |
| 5YCAGR | +38.6% | +26.9% | +30.7% |
| 10YCAGR | +14.9% | +1.6% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) valuation, health, and returns.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. is estimated to be fairly valued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $0.00)
Core Natural Resources, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $0.00 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $136.09 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $115.25 (implying +37.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 39/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.4 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -6.5%.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. pays a 0.6% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 5.3% buyback yield.
Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +93.8% 1Y revenue growth and -130.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +22.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 17 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +37.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Core Natural Resources, Inc. include: -27.2% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.12x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.