MODEL VERDICT
Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $29.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $29.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $30.77 | +4.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $36.82 | +24.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $34.71 | +17.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $39.07 | +32.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $30.77 | +4.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $33.26 | +12.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.08 | +28.8% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $26 | $31 | $36 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $23 | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $29 | $34 | $39 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.62 | 16.06 | 10.59 | 25.43 | 5.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.67 | 15.59 | 9.67 | 19.87 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.77 | 12.94 | 8.85 | 18.19 | 3.50 |
| P/FCF | 23.78 | 10.09 | 6.31 | 96.66 | 35.76 |
| P/FFO | 14.54 | 13.93 | 8.27 | 22.59 | 5.29 |
| P/TBV | 2.44 | 2.75 | 1.47 | 3.75 | 0.88 |
| P/AFFO | 15.36 | 14.57 | 8.73 | 23.34 | 5.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.92 | 2.08 | 1.05 | 2.92 | 0.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.05 | 4.86 | 1.91 | 6.10 | 1.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates COLB's fair value at $38.08 vs the current price of $29.56, implying +28.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.12 (P10) to $42.53 (P90), with a median of $37.66.
COLB's current P/E of 12.9x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -3.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.6x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
19 analysts cover COLB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.92 (range: $30.00 — $37.00), implying +11.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COLB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (22.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6720.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.