MODEL VERDICT
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (COLL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $32.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $34.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $35.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $65.64 | +91.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $171.98 | +401.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $56.55 | +64.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $102.80 | +199.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $149.72 | +336.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $110.08 | +220.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $48.71 | +41.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $36.32 | +5.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $64.20 | +87.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $55.76 | +62.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $86.79 | +152.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $95.60 | +178.6% | 100% | 87 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $30 | $33 | $37 | $41 | $44 |
| Conservative (12%) | $31 | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 |
| Base Case (17.9%) | $33 | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $34 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.48 | 23.86 | 10.04 | 26.76 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.77 | 14.28 | 10.82 | 47.57 | 15.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.90 | 6.44 | 5.44 | 9.70 | 1.58 |
| P/FCF | 10.37 | 6.05 | 4.69 | 32.25 | 10.77 |
| P/FFO | 6.34 | 6.44 | 4.86 | 7.97 | 1.09 |
| P/AFFO | 6.48 | 6.47 | 4.89 | 8.51 | 1.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.31 | 5.06 | 3.78 | 7.87 | 1.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 2.27 | 1.69 | 2.77 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates COLL's fair value at $95.60 vs the current price of $34.32, implying +178.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $95.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $74.29 (P10) to $107.47 (P90), with a median of $90.46.
COLL's current P/E of 19.8x compares to the industry median of 32.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -39.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.5x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover COLL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $58.00 (range: $56.00 — $60.00), implying +69.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COLL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 680.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.