MODEL VERDICT
Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $62.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $60.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $60.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $57.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $57.26 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $50.64 | -18.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $56.41 | -9.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $53.73 | -13.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $60.00 | -3.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $69.48 | +11.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $61.45 | -1.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $40.96 | -34.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $79.30 | +27.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $73.00 | +17.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $59.33 | -4.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $60.13 | -3.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.02 | +10.7% | 100% | 75 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $51 | $58 | $65 | $72 | $79 |
| Conservative (10%) | $53 | $60 | $68 | $75 | $82 |
| Base Case (14.9%) | $56 | $63 | $71 | $78 | $86 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $58 | $66 | $74 | $82 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.15 | 19.45 | 17.00 | 53.94 | 13.25 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.20 | 14.99 | 12.75 | 29.84 | 5.84 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.49 | 12.80 | 10.70 | 19.26 | 2.92 |
| P/FCF | 19.99 | 17.08 | 8.40 | 42.38 | 12.32 |
| P/FFO | 15.86 | 15.17 | 12.86 | 22.92 | 3.54 |
| P/TBV | 3.10 | 3.06 | 1.85 | 4.14 | 0.74 |
| P/AFFO | 19.43 | 19.17 | 14.88 | 25.83 | 3.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.86 | 2.85 | 1.76 | 3.71 | 0.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.71 | 1.59 | 0.89 | 2.33 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates COLM's fair value at $69.02 vs the current price of $62.35, implying +10.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $52.67 (P10) to $70.91 (P90), with a median of $61.72.
COLM's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +16.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
28 analysts cover COLM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $63.33 (range: $47.00 — $80.00), implying +1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COLM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15720.0% to approximately $160. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.