MODEL VERDICT
The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $62.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $64.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $70.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $70.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $71.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $79.47 | +27.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $79.45 | +27.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $55.77 | -10.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $51.45 | -17.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $70.94 | +13.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $42.47 | -31.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $75.92 | +21.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $85.91 | +37.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $55.74 | -10.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $51.39 | -17.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.57 | +16.4% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $51 | $57 | $63 | $69 | $74 |
| Conservative (5%) | $53 | $59 | $65 | $71 | $77 |
| Base Case (-17.2%) | $42 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $60 |
| Bull Case (-23%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $52 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.36 | 42.61 | 1.77 | 63.93 | 22.82 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.84 | 35.79 | 30.00 | 65.78 | 12.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.53 | 22.33 | 17.24 | 33.31 | 5.36 |
| P/FCF | 58.01 | 39.84 | 36.49 | 102.17 | 27.26 |
| P/FFO | 22.52 | 22.45 | 6.42 | 34.26 | 8.56 |
| P/TBV | 40.30 | 8.01 | 5.86 | 203.42 | 79.92 |
| P/AFFO | 45.75 | 37.64 | 6.87 | 83.69 | 25.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.03 | 2.50 | 1.99 | 4.71 | 1.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.65 | 5.25 | 4.01 | 7.41 | 1.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates COO's fair value at $72.57 vs the current price of $62.36, implying +16.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.99 (P10) to $86.73 (P90), with a median of $77.65.
COO's current P/E of 33.3x compares to the industry median of 29.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +11.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
24 analysts cover COO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $93.86 (range: $73.00 — $100.00), implying +50.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: COO trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (32.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14870.0% to approximately $155. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.