MODEL VERDICT
Cencora, Inc. (COR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $304.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $308.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $327.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $317.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $320.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $333.08 | +9.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $396.21 | +30.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $226.86 | -25.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $318.64 | +4.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $400.01 | +31.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $340.92 | +12.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $2281.83 | +650.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $2300.91 | +656.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $228.47 | -24.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $321.87 | +5.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $417.45 | +37.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $265 | $290 | $315 | $339 | $364 |
| Conservative (7%) | $271 | $297 | $322 | $348 | $373 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $280 | $306 | $333 | $359 | $385 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $289 | $316 | $343 | $370 | $398 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 26.00 | 22.56 | 17.98 | 42.43 | 9.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.23 | 17.16 | 13.24 | 25.85 | 4.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.81 | 10.82 | 7.99 | 14.71 | 2.45 |
| P/FCF | 13.68 | 12.43 | 8.86 | 20.56 | 3.85 |
| P/FFO | 16.57 | 15.03 | 13.40 | 25.24 | 4.47 |
| P/AFFO | 21.11 | 18.51 | 17.24 | 33.91 | 6.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 117.08 | 52.30 | 6.02 | 491.06 | 184.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates COR's fair value at $417.45 vs the current price of $304.00, implying +37.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $417.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $339.17 (P10) to $511.04 (P90), with a median of $421.47.
COR's current P/E of 38.2x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +34.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 26.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
46 analysts cover COR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $409.14 (range: $360.00 — $440.00), implying +34.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (33), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (18), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: COR trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (26.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that COR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (0.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6530.0% to approximately $106. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.