MODEL VERDICT
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CPRX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $28.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $26.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $25.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.94 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $47.34 | +64.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $38.53 | +34.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $26.05 | -9.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $22.21 | -22.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $37.83 | +31.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $26.46 | -7.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $25.68 | -10.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $24.12 | -16.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $18.99 | -33.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $24.57 | -14.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $27.13 | -5.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.08 | +18.6% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $23 | $27 | $31 | $34 | $38 |
| Conservative (12%) | $25 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| Base Case (18.8%) | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $27 | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.69 | 15.93 | 4.70 | 26.68 | 7.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.90 | 10.73 | 5.44 | 20.48 | 5.22 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.65 | 9.69 | 5.43 | 17.24 | 4.10 |
| P/FCF | 15.08 | 12.30 | 7.88 | 30.91 | 7.63 |
| P/FFO | 14.74 | 12.93 | 4.73 | 24.57 | 6.33 |
| P/TBV | 5.13 | 4.54 | 2.09 | 9.87 | 2.71 |
| P/AFFO | 14.83 | 12.97 | 4.73 | 24.58 | 6.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.10 | 3.58 | 2.09 | 6.90 | 1.54 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.27 | 5.04 | 2.98 | 9.67 | 2.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPRX's fair value at $34.08 vs the current price of $28.74, implying +18.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.32 (P10) to $38.19 (P90), with a median of $32.69.
CPRX's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +10.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.7x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
16 analysts cover CPRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.00 (range: $33.00 — $33.00), implying +14.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CPRX trades at the 4470th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CPRX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (35.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 450.0% to approximately $27. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.