MODEL VERDICT
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $66.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $62.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $60.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $61.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $62.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $77.55 | +15.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $56.20 | -16.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $65.14 | -2.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $125.50 | +87.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $80.97 | +21.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $151.27 | +126.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $52.59 | -21.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $88.80 | +32.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $83.14 | +24.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $64.88 | -3.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $121.52 | +81.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.46 | +26.3% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $54 | $63 | $72 | $81 | $90 |
| Conservative (9%) | $55 | $65 | $74 | $83 | $92 |
| Base Case (13.6%) | $58 | $68 | $77 | $87 | $97 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 | $101 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.06 | 14.38 | 7.16 | 17.69 | 3.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.62 | 14.60 | 7.78 | 17.07 | 3.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.16 | 11.41 | 6.92 | 13.70 | 2.26 |
| P/FCF | 23.00 | 12.44 | 7.44 | 89.20 | 29.47 |
| P/FFO | 8.69 | 8.79 | 4.89 | 11.32 | 2.04 |
| P/TBV | 26.11 | 26.79 | 22.40 | 28.47 | 2.62 |
| P/AFFO | 18.16 | 13.28 | 5.12 | 51.94 | 15.77 |
| P/B Ratio | 25.84 | 26.53 | 21.84 | 28.47 | 2.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.49 | 1.60 | 2.95 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CQP's fair value at $84.46 vs the current price of $66.90, implying +26.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.49 (P10) to $102.17 (P90), with a median of $84.40.
CQP's current P/E of 15.7x compares to the industry median of 15.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover CQP with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $75.00 (range: $75.00 — $75.00), implying +12.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (5), Sell (10), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CQP trades at the 4440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CQP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3100.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.