MODEL VERDICT
CRA International, Inc. (CRAI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $161.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $150.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $158.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $160.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $160.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $211.34 | +30.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $326.92 | +102.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $240.26 | +48.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $57.76 | -64.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $262.72 | +62.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $53.66 | -66.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $607.75 | +275.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $447.23 | +176.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $466.54 | +188.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $253.75 | +56.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $59.20 | -63.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $230.27 | +42.3% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $141 | $159 | $177 | $195 | $212 |
| Conservative (14%) | $148 | $167 | $186 | $204 | $223 |
| Base Case (21.5%) | $158 | $178 | $198 | $218 | $237 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $168 | $189 | $210 | $231 | $252 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.96 | 20.72 | 16.59 | 27.77 | 4.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.50 | 15.52 | 13.77 | 20.63 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.32 | 11.42 | 8.58 | 14.45 | 2.29 |
| P/FCF | 32.37 | 39.05 | 9.74 | 72.62 | 23.11 |
| P/FFO | 12.91 | 10.94 | 8.20 | 19.55 | 4.15 |
| P/TBV | 7.47 | 6.34 | 3.53 | 11.90 | 3.31 |
| P/AFFO | 15.66 | 13.74 | 10.97 | 22.75 | 4.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.95 | 3.46 | 1.94 | 6.31 | 1.73 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.34 | 1.26 | 0.80 | 1.88 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRAI's fair value at $230.27 vs the current price of $161.81, implying +42.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $230.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $183.96 (P10) to $220.76 (P90), with a median of $202.11.
CRAI's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -32.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover CRAI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $194.00 (range: $194.00 — $194.00), implying +19.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRAI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 820.0% to approximately $175. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.