MODEL VERDICT
California Resources Corporation (CRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $68.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $64.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $62.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $64.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $66.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $43.93 | -35.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $65.44 | -4.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $49.96 | -26.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $79.18 | +15.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $103.32 | +51.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $86.18 | +26.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $76.71 | +12.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $72.57 | +6.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $49.96 | -26.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $79.18 | +15.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.74 | -9.7% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $51 | $59 | $68 | $76 | $85 |
| Conservative (5%) | $52 | $61 | $70 | $78 | $87 |
| Base Case (-28.7%) | $36 | $41 | $47 | $53 | $59 |
| Bull Case (-39%) | $30 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.05 | 6.74 | 1.04 | 11.23 | 3.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.18 | 5.91 | 1.23 | 13.70 | 4.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.01 | 3.50 | 2.34 | 6.98 | 1.47 |
| P/FCF | 11.28 | 8.62 | 2.01 | 33.31 | 10.32 |
| P/FFO | 3.42 | 4.05 | 0.88 | 4.96 | 1.76 |
| P/TBV | 1.50 | 1.66 | 0.88 | 2.10 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 7.06 | 6.59 | 0.89 | 14.33 | 4.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.50 | 1.66 | 0.88 | 2.10 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.10 | 1.22 | 0.17 | 1.43 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRC's fair value at $61.74 vs the current price of $68.37, implying -9.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.27 (P10) to $76.28 (P90), with a median of $64.11.
CRC's current P/E of 16.5x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +36.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover CRC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.33 (range: $56.00 — $84.00), implying -0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CRC trades at the 5370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (36.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5010.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.