MODEL VERDICT
Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (CRDF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $1.14 | -27.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $0.09 | -94.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.26 | -20.1% | 100% | 55 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.48 | 1.01 | 0.57 | 2.93 | 0.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.48 | 1.01 | 0.57 | 2.93 | 0.92 |
| Div Yield | 1.64 | 1.64 | 0.00 | 3.27 | 1.89 |
| P/S Ratio | 332.25 | 158.13 | 19.60 | 1026.07 | 374.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRDF's fair value at $1.26 vs the current price of $1.58, implying -20.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.26 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
CRDF's current P/E of -1.7x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -107.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover CRDF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (3), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRDF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.