MODEL VERDICT
Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y Agropecuaria (CRESY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $11.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $11.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $11.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $162330.63 | +1494657.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $27.23 | +150.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $44362.72 | +408396.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $19767.79 | +181923.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $28124.49 | +258873.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $42483.19 | +391089.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $63383.57 | +583542.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $25.22 | +132.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $47200.10 | +434523.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44282.83 | +407660.8% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8399× | 9199× | 9999× (Current) | 10799× | 11599× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11994 | $13136 | $14279 | $15421 | $16563 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12347 | $13523 | $14699 | $15875 | $17051 |
| Base Case (-55.4%) | $5244 | $5744 | $6243 | $6743 | $7242 |
| Bull Case (-75%) | $2963 | $3245 | $3528 | $3810 | $4092 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1.82 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 9.02 | 4.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.55 | 8.23 | 1.78 | 19.08 | 5.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.67 | 4.36 | 0.70 | 5.24 | 2.02 |
| P/FCF | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/FFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 100.84 | 104.57 | 1.30 | 250.60 | 88.97 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRESY's fair value at $44282.83 vs the current price of $10.86, implying +407660.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44282.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34628.04 (P10) to $65646.89 (P90), with a median of $49963.46.
CRESY's current P/E of 9999.0x compares to the industry median of 19.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +51300.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1.8x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover CRESY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $12.68 (range: $12.68 — $12.68), implying +16.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CRESY trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (1.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRESY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (15.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8330.0% to approximately $2. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.