MODEL VERDICT
CRH plc (CRH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $115.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $118.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $117.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $116.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $117.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $120.64 | +4.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $199.54 | +72.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $135.46 | +17.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $129.31 | +12.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $130.62 | +13.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $124.36 | +7.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $144.66 | +25.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $226.93 | +96.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $214.03 | +85.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $133.88 | +16.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $128.05 | +10.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $130.88 | +13.4% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $109 | $120 | $130 | $140 | $151 |
| Conservative (18%) | $116 | $127 | $138 | $149 | $160 |
| Base Case (27.0%) | $125 | $137 | $149 | $161 | $173 |
| Bull Case (36%) | $134 | $147 | $160 | $173 | $186 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.59 | 18.43 | 8.38 | 29.99 | 7.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.48 | 15.53 | 9.90 | 22.09 | 4.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.80 | 10.22 | 7.06 | 15.73 | 2.58 |
| P/FCF | 19.64 | 17.11 | 13.86 | 33.51 | 7.61 |
| P/FFO | 11.94 | 11.59 | 5.97 | 16.87 | 3.40 |
| P/TBV | 4.72 | 4.26 | 2.57 | 8.18 | 1.93 |
| P/AFFO | 22.06 | 20.00 | 8.29 | 36.79 | 8.60 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.30 | 2.25 | 1.42 | 3.32 | 0.67 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 1.59 | 1.00 | 2.65 | 0.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRH's fair value at $130.88 vs the current price of $115.45, implying +13.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $130.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.12 (P10) to $148.09 (P90), with a median of $133.58.
CRH's current P/E of 24.6x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -14.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
20 analysts cover CRH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $135.60 (range: $120.00 — $147.00), implying +17.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CRH trades at the 6430th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 40.0% to approximately $116. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.