MODEL VERDICT
CSP Inc. (CSPI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $3.06 | -71.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 46 industry peers | $5.89 | -44.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 59 industry peers | $14.36 | +35.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 59 industry peers | $10.74 | +0.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 46 industry peers | $3.06 | -71.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.03 | +31.9% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.71 | 22.48 | 17.71 | 78.96 | 34.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.25 | 9.39 | 2.41 | 12.97 | 5.37 |
| P/FCF | 213.52 | 30.08 | 10.23 | 1132.80 | 450.72 |
| P/FFO | 189.80 | 102.30 | 14.20 | 595.31 | 232.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.51 | 1.04 | 0.54 | 3.08 | 1.03 |
| P/AFFO | 204.40 | 15.59 | 14.87 | 534.15 | 260.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.51 | 1.04 | 0.54 | 3.07 | 1.02 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.10 | 0.74 | 0.26 | 2.63 | 0.92 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSPI's fair value at $14.03 vs the current price of $10.64, implying +31.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.77 (P10) to $41.59 (P90), with a median of $15.31.
CSPI's current P/E of -1085.7x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (40 peers in the group). This represents a -5436.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CSPI.
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CSPI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.